Deterministic modeling of the size of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Cuba

Rachid Lounes (1, 2) , Hector de Arazoza (3, 4) , Ying-Hen Hsieh (5) , Jose Joanes (6, 7)

1 MAP5 - Mathématiques Appliquées à Paris 5
2 UPD5 Mathématiques Informatique - Université Paris Descartes - UFR de Mathématiques et Informatique
3 MATCOM - Matematica y Computacion
4 Facultad de Matematica y Computacion
5 Department of Applied Mathematics, National Chung University Taiwan
6 Ministerio de Salud Publica
7 Dept of Epidemiology

The objective is to model the contact tracing aspect of the HIV detection system, to try to obtain some information that could be useful to the Health System in Cuba in evaluating the way the program is working, and to ascertain its usefulness in terms of intervention and treatment of HIV. Other models have been used to study the effect of contact tracing with this objective in mind . However, these were essentially linear models. We will now introduce non-linearity to model contact tracing. We will also discuss the implications of our results for the purpose of intervention and treatment of HIV/AIDS in Cuba, and to estimate the size of the epidemic in Cuba.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS; Epidemiology; Mathematical Model; Contact Tracing; Underreporting rate; Cuba

Domains: Statistics [stat]; Applications [stat.AP]; Life Sciences [q-bio]; Santé publique et épidémiologie

Rachid Lounes, Hector de Arazoza, Ying-Hen Hsieh, Jose Joanes. Deterministic modeling of the size of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Cuba. C. Huber, N. Limnios, M. Mesbah, M. Nikulin. Mathematical Methods in Survival Analysis, Reliability and Quality of Life., ISTE & J. Wiley, London, pp.317-330, 2008. ⟨hal-00264150⟩