Modeling HIV Epidemic Under Contact Tracing-The Cuban Case

Hector de Arazoza (1, 2) , Rachid Lounes (3, 4) , Thu Hoang (5) , Yannet Interian (2)

1 MATCOM - Matematica y Computacion
2 Facultad de Matematica y Computacion
3 MAP5 - Mathématiques Appliquées à Paris 5
4 UPD5 Mathématiques Informatique - Université Paris Descartes - UFR de Mathématiques et Informatique
5 MAP5 - UMR 8145 - Mathématiques Appliquées Paris 5

A nonlinear model is developed for an epidemic with contact tracing, and its dynamic is studied. A linear version of the model is presented in both deterministic and stochastic versions. We present the data for the cuban HIV/AIDS epidemic and fit the linear model to the data, we obtain estimates for the size of the Cuban HIV epidernic.

Keywords: birth and death process; HIV/AIDS epidemic; contact tracing; pidemic control; deterministic path; birth and death process.

Domains: Statistics [stat]; Applications [stat.AP]; Life Sciences [q-bio]; Santé publique et épidémiologie

Hector de Arazoza, Rachid Lounes, Thu Hoang, Yannet Interian. Modeling HIV Epidemic Under Contact Tracing-The Cuban Case. Journal of Theoretical Medicine, 2000, 2, pp.267-274. ⟨hal-00263924⟩