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Prediction of September–December Fire in New Caledonia (Southwestern Pacific) Using July Niño-4 Sea Surface Temperature Index

Abstract : An empirical statistical scheme for predicting the September to December fires in New Caledonia in SW Pacific using a cross-validated Generalized Linear Model has been developed for the 2000-2010 period. The predictor employs July sea surface temperatures (SST) recorded over the Niño 4 box (160°-210°E, 5°S-5°N) which is closely related to austral spring (September-November) rainfall anomalies across New Caledonia. The correlation between the log of observed and simulated total burned area across New Caledonia is 0.87. A decrease in the local-scale skill (median correlation between the log of observed and simulated total burned area in a 20-km radius around rain gauge = 0.46) around the main town (Nouméa) and its suburb in the SW of 'Grande Terre', and also in northern New Caledonia, could be associated either to a weaker climatic forcing from Niño 4 SST index or a small-scale climatic forcing not linearly related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. More likely, the decrease is tied to the influence of human-driven factors that blurs the regional-scale climatic signal mostly associated with Central Pacific ENSO events.
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Submitted on : Monday, October 25, 2021 - 2:06:40 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, October 26, 2021 - 3:51:03 AM

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Vincent Moron, Renaud Barbero, Morgan Mangeas, Laure Borgniet, Thomas Curt, et al.. Prediction of September–December Fire in New Caledonia (Southwestern Pacific) Using July Niño-4 Sea Surface Temperature Index. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, American Meteorological Society, 2013, 52 (3), pp.623 - 633. ⟨10.1175/JAMC-D-12-03.1⟩. ⟨hal-01855547⟩

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